October/November Caucus Check In

 


I write about the fun of the Iowa Caucus and as you may have noticed, the fun (like the candidates) is dwindling


School board elections saw a big loss for the Moms of Liberty in Des Moines (of course) the progressive suburbs(probably) the rich suburbs (surprise), the rural counties (shock) and even Western Iowa (say what). 


It’s  still early, so I don’t feel like I have heard a lot of buzz.  If there is any buzz, it’s been around Ron DeSantis who is seemingly so far away at Trump at this point, I’m not sure it matters. 


On the TV front, Trump is attacking DeSantis (the presumable second place candidate) and DeSantis attacking Haley (presuming attacking Trump won’t move any needles.)


Vivek Ramaswamy is running ads which are like him, perhaps the most dynamic of the campaign. In it, he attacks politicians while a variety of bipartisan images of run behind him. 


Fox News reports:


Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is launching a $1 million ad buy in the critical states of Iowa and New Hampshire, calling out politicians on both sides of the aisle he says are "leading us into World War III."

"Corrupt politicians have spent trillions, killed millions and made billions for themselves in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, they're leading us into World War III. That ends on my watch," Ramaswamy tells voters in the ad. 

Shown in flashed images on a giant screen behind him are President Biden, GOP rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley and former President George W. Bush and former Vice President Dick Cheney.



Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Ada Hutchison all have a calendar of events this week. The other news of recent note is Iowa Gov Kim Reynolds endorsement of Ron DeSantis which has been percolating for awhile.  Ramaswamy meanwhile has moved to Iowa as an all-in approach to his run. (The move-the-family approach was most notably tried in the past by Marianne Williamson in 2020 and Chris Dodd in 2008- if that is an indication of its effectiveness). 


The October Des Moines Register poll (pre- Scott drop) has Trump sizably ahead 


Trump 43%

DeSantis 15%

Haley 15%

Scott 7%

Christie 4%

Ramaswamy 4%

Burgum 3%

Hutchison 1%


Trump of course says he will win Iowa,  Iowa Capitol Dispatch reports:


saying in an October stop before noting “I was quite disrespectful to Iowa — I’d like to apologize, because I go around saying ‘of course we’re going to win Iowa,'” Trump said. “And people say, ‘you cannot assume that.’ … I got Iowa and the farm states, Nebraska, Wisconsin and others. I got, I got farmers $28 billion from China. I said there’s no way Iowa is going to be against Trump.”  


Trump, however, delivered what some might consider a slight to the Iowa community he was visiting, instead naming a South Dakota city. He opened his event in Sioux City by saying hello to “a place where we’ve done very well, Sioux Falls.” The former president corrected himself several minutes later.


Back to the poll- here are some additional insights 


  • Nikki Haley was the only one with positive momentum 
  • At this point in the last two competitive GOP caucuses- Herman Cain and Ben Carson led- neither would win in Iowa
  •  Among, Iowa evangelicals (64% of GOP caucus voters in 2016), Trump leads 44% DeSantis 22% and Haley 15%
  • But as overall favorability with evangelicals go, DeSantis (76% favorable/20% unfavorable) leads Trump  (72% favorable/28% unfavorable) and Haley  (62% favorable/20% unfavorable)


And most importantly the Register does a cumulative percentage of first and second choices 


Trump 55

DeSantis 43

Haley 33

Scott 17

Ramaswamy 13

Burgum 6

Christie 6

Hutchison 2

Binkley 1


And a voter “considering” percentage to find ceilings and basements of support


Trump 67

DeSantis 67

Haley 54

Scott 49

Ramaswamy 32

Burgum 19

Christie 16

Hutchison 9

Binkley 6



How will things shake out in Iowa?  Stay tuned. 

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