Caucus Byte- The Unscientific Vote

One of the fun moments of the Caucus Season is the Corn Kernel Poll- the very unofficial State Fair event where anyone can express their Presidential preference via a corn kernel. 

At least I don’t take it seriously. Eric Trump clearly does when he made headlines in multiple outlets in 2019 

This morning on Fox and Friends, Eric Trump claimed media bias over coverage of the famed “Cast Your Kernel” polling at the Iowa State Fair, in which attendees place a single kernel of corn into the jar of the presidential candidate they favor. Trump claimed the jar of his father, President Donald Trump, was overflowing compared to the turnout of some Democrats such as New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, but that news outlets covering the poll were only displaying images of Democrats’ jars. 

Held every four years starting in 2015, the Trumps shouldn’t complain as Donald won that first Poll with 29-19-8 win place show ahead of Ben Carson and eventual Iowa Caucus Winner Ted Cruz.

In 2019, Trump was only challenged by William Weld so his 96-4 lead probably shouldn’t have gotten too much attention, right?

Joe Biden won the crowded Democratic field barely beating Elizabeth Warren and caucus winner Pete Buttigieg 18-17-14. 

Even if Biden didn’t have a successful Iowa campaign, he won this battle. 


TRIGGERED!

This was the year the New York Post ran the story that Bill DeBlasio got zero percent of the unscientific vote. It should also be mentioned several other candidates fell to the same fate. 

The poll returned for 2023. 

Joe Biden has a couple of competitors for the Democratic nomination but still won handily over Robert Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson 67-19-14. 

 Donald Trump had twice as many kernels as Biden and almost 30% more than any Republican candidate, so if we are talking the voters who love Midways and food on the stick, they love old 45. 

The poll is over a month old at this point and doesn’t reflect any recent post-debate ebbs and flows, but the one thing I did find interesting was that Perry Johnson did a lot better than he probably has elsewhere- meaning he is a recognizable name in Iowa and perhaps his ground game has traction.


Here’s that Top 10 

Trump 42.5%
DeSantis 15.3 
Scott 11.1 
Ramaswamy 9.4 
Johnson 6.2 
Haley 3.8 
Hutchison 3.4 
Pence 2.7 
Burgum 2.7 
Hurd 1.1 

 This year was the first year, Libertarians were included and one candidate even was invited to speak on the Soapbox- Chase Oliver, the former Georgia-based US Senate candidate who ran against Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker who forced a runoff second election. 

Chase overcame a deficit in early Corn results to tie with Raymond Dude Wagner. 

I know next to nothing about the nearly unGoogleable Wagner, nor do I know if his success was because of his name Dude. 

I know there are a handful of Libertarian candidates with some very active campaigns and I am not sure how it’s reflected here. 

The Libertarians in Iowa will have a caucus on January 15. This will coincide with the first in the nation Republican Iowa Caucus and a still in the works but probably non voting Democratic Caucus on the same night. The Libertarians met the 2% Major Party Threshold in 2022 with the gubernatorial election and Rick Stewart getting 2.4% of the vote. 

The Libertarian kernel poll went something like this. 

Chase Oliver 18.9% 
Raymond Dude Wagner 18.9 
Aaron Avouris 7.7 
Melissa Biondi 7.7 
Hugo Valdez Garcia 7 
David Rees DeSilva 5.6 
Jon Stewart 5.6 
David Dunlap 4.2 
Jacob Hornberger 4.2 
Kevin Babicz 3.5 
Charles Griffith Ferry 3.5 
Antonio Gagnon 2.8 
Mike ter Maat 2.8 
Russel DeLeon 2.1 
Lars Mapstead 2.1 

Since the Fair in August, Libertarian candidates Michael Rectenwald, Joshua Smith and Chris Fronzak have also announced candidacies and with the above mentioned Oliver, Hornberger, ter Maat and Mapstead are the seemingly most actively mentioned candidates on social media.

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